The rapid expansion of GLP-1 drugs for weight loss and diabetes treatment may have implications far beyond the scale. According to a new Swiss Re analysis, if these medications are broadly adopted and used consistently, they could reduce all-cause mortality in the United States by as much as 6.4 percent by 2045.
The report, called “The Future of Metabolic Health and Weight Loss Drugs,” points out that GLP-1 use among U.S. adults already rose above 4 percent in 2024—a fivefold increase in just five years. The market is projected to grow at about 26 percent per year through 2033, a scale large enough to shift long-term mortality projections and influence life insurance and annuities.
Under the most optimistic modeling scenarios, the cumulative gain in life expectancy could be substantial. The study suggests similar improvements could occur in the U.K., with more than a 5 percent drop in mortality by the same horizon. Advocates see this as an opportunity not just for medical progress, but for insurers to align incentives, support preventive health, and promote sustainable lifestyle changes.
Of course, the model also includes more cautious pathways. If uptake remains limited, discontinuation is common, or weight regain becomes widespread after stopping treatment, mortality gains shrink dramatically. In those less favorable scenarios, U.S. mortality reduction falls to about 2.3 percent by 2045, and just 1.8 percent in the U.K.
Swiss Re executives emphasize that GLP-1s are not a magic bullet. The health benefits depend heavily on adherence and accompanying behavioral change. Without lasting diet, exercise, and lifestyle shifts, many users regain weight after discontinuation. Still, this analysis underscores that GLP-1 drugs, when integrated thoughtfully into broader prevention strategies, have the potential to reshape the long view on mortality and risk.