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According to The Motley Fool:

” Bad things can happen when a government forecast proves to be way off.

There are mistakes, and then there are big mistakes. What the Congressional Budget Office’s latest report on federal subsidies revealed was a mistake of monstrousproportions on the part of the federal government.

Here’s what a forecasting error looks like
The Congressional Budget Office, or CBO, has been making projections on the future of Obamacare, and healthcare in general, for years. Initially, the CBO had projected that up to 21 million people would sign up for private health insurance using Obamacare’s transparent marketplace exchanges by 2016. However, that estimate has been substantially reduced to just 12 million. According to the Department of Health and Human Services, Obamacare enrollment totaled “about 12.7 million” as of the end of third enrollment period (Jan. 31, 2016). Ultimately, the CBO foresees private health enrollment via Obamacare topping out at between 18 million and 19 million people between 2018 and 2026.

Why such a huge difference in actual enrollment versus initial projections? To begin with, the government appears to have overestimated just how many people would sign up on private exchanges versus being enrolled via their employer. The data has thus far shown that nowhere near as many people as expected dropped out of employer-sponsored insurance to sign up on Obamacare’s marketplace exchanges, meaning there was a considerably smaller uninsured pool than initially anticipated. (more…)